Eurozone Economy Update - September 2015
September 10, 2015
2015-2016 Outlook: After a nice start to the year, the Eurozone tackled with a huge fatigue the Greek saga, and then the EM-prompted market turbulence. The impact of the second is far from clear, but as European Central Bank’s President Draghi stated, it increases the risk that external demand will be lower than previously thought. In our view, the three powerful factors that initiated the recent recovery phase remain in place, namely, expansionary monetary policy, the positive real income shock from the oil price decline, and the weakened currency; however, in a risk off environment the last is more in doubt.